Iran Says It Took Two U.S. Drones as Tankers Burn in Hormuz | Mike Drop Newsroom

0:00 [SPEAKER_00]: Iran claims that it seized two U.S. attack drones as the U.S. ready for possible major combat. [SPEAKER_00]: The IRGC says its Navy's electronic warfare unit took control of two. [SPEAKER_00]: Lucas one way attack drones in the Hormuz area. [SPEAKER_00]: Kud's force commander said the entire resistance is one front. [SPEAKER_00]: And warned of a quote, war with weapons in the straight of Hormuz. [SPEAKER_00]: I hope it would be a war with weapons. [SPEAKER_00]: Plus the opening of the Babelman-Deb U.S. officials told Axios the military is finishing preparations for possible resumed major combat, but preparations are not in order President Trump told the financial times there are no immediate plans to strike and we're quote locked and loaded if we need to go.

0:51 [SPEAKER_00]: Why does this matter? [SPEAKER_00]: Well, the Lucas program is part of a cheap drone force that the Pentagon is betting on and have recently ramped up in implemented November 4th. [SPEAKER_00]: It said more than 25,000 drone and counter-drone systems went to SENTCOM. [SPEAKER_00]: Its technology chief said the U.S. was unprepared for drone warfare. [SPEAKER_00]: It is a little curious and alarming if Sent-Com's technology chief is saying that the U.S. is unprepared for drone warfare, but I think the broader question is that if Iran can really grab two of these in-flight, you know, the U.S. forces do need to know this before anything resumes, because there's, I'm sure there's patches, or [SPEAKER_00]: other implementations that they can put in place that prevent this from happening in the future.

1:46 [SPEAKER_00]: So from kind of a test run standpoint, it's at least good that they figured that out and know that it is problematic and concerning that that happened, especially given the degradation of forces in Iran that's taken place over the last eight months. [SPEAKER_00]: They still have a [SPEAKER_00]: and obvious capability from an electronic warfare standpoint to take control of two newer drones, even though yes, they are cheaper due to the amount of volume that we're trying to accomplish with them, but that that is a concern. [SPEAKER_00]: you know, preparations are not in order, agreed, you know, is this something that looks like it leads to resumed strikes possibly.

2:32 [SPEAKER_00]: I think the, you know, the elections that we've seen or the impact of the elections that have taken place over the past couple days. [SPEAKER_00]: it is going to be interesting to see what impact that has me you can see both sides to it and that I could see the kind of panic button of the administration trying to accomplish its goals between now and December 11 when the fight for money takes place whether or not Congress decides to stop the war by canceling or removing funding from that or it remains to be a stalemate [SPEAKER_00]: We'll see on the other side, you know, with the lame dot Congress coming up, I can also see the potential for the administration to not try to further any goals and cause any problems to try to, you know, enter into this next two-year period of almost unavoidable conflict with the House, I would say, given how blue it is now.

3:37 [SPEAKER_00]: is there a strategy on their part to not go in their causing waves? [SPEAKER_00]: I tend to think that that's probably the lesser of two probable outcomes, but you never know, Trump, you know, oftentimes does things that you wouldn't expect in both good and bad ways. [SPEAKER_00]: So, [SPEAKER_00]: You know, we'll see what happens, but, you know, in this case, it is a little concerning that two of our newer drones were essentially hijacked in air and taking control of. [SPEAKER_00]: So, you think that they actually took the the drones I suspect they probably did. [SPEAKER_00]: Sent-com is pretty standard for them not to come in on something like this which I agree with and I think makes sense, but But it's probably accurate.

4:27 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's not not been the first time they've they've done it before with some of our older stuff, and You know, it is a concern for sure Iran does say that these drones came down [SPEAKER_00]: In the straight where there are two more tankers on fire in the area right now, the RGC says that the two tankers on a tugboat caught fire after mine strikes in the straight a day after it claimed four tankers hit mines. [SPEAKER_00]: Separately, the UK's maritime agency or UK MTO reported a tanker hit by two projectiles [SPEAKER_00]: The USS Theodore Roosevelt and its strike group were in the South China Sea, heading for the Middle East as of Wednesday.

5:15 [SPEAKER_00]: U.S. forces are still holding the blockade, and protecting commercial traffic to the best of their ability. [SPEAKER_00]: St. Com says more than 3,000 vessels have moved with U.S. support in six months. [SPEAKER_00]: What happens next, turns on Qatar's draft deal, and that's a three-day sequence of confidence [SPEAKER_00]: you know the fact that pretty much every day there are at least a vessel or in most cases several vessels that are either struck by projectiles, i.e. [SPEAKER_00]: drones or ballistic missiles, missiles of some sort not necessarily ballistic or run across mines that have been recently laid and that were either unaware of or didn't [SPEAKER_00]: have a chance or were able to demine prior to something striking them.

6:08 [SPEAKER_00]: I think further highlights the stalemate that's taking place. [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously our blockade is effective in that Iran doesn't singularly control the flow of traffic in and out. [SPEAKER_00]: However, we can't really make that claim either given that they still have the capacity to strike different types of tankers and ships vessels in the region with a multitude of means. [SPEAKER_00]: There's the mining, which is problematic, but there's also the drone strikes and missile strikes that are equally a problem.

6:49 [SPEAKER_00]: the stalemate that exists, I think, is really forcing the hand of the United States in either having to make a deal or potentially going back to resuming high intensity strikes. [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's been pretty well shown that what seems like our methodology or [SPEAKER_00]: or strategy, which is to kind of whittle it down and stalemate it long enough until, you know, their economy collapses and they're kind of pushed into a corner to have to make a deal. [SPEAKER_00]: I would ascertain that, you know, our assumption is that that would have happened a lot quicker.

7:31 [SPEAKER_00]: I think you're seeing, you've seen a number of reports where the crypto market or institution as it were has proved to be a pretty [SPEAKER_00]: option for them to maintain both in power and financially funded our ability to squash that isn't as significant as a freezing bank assets like we have in the past. [SPEAKER_00]: I think, you know, when you look at six months of intense strikes, several months of, you know, basically talking while still tipped for tat and kind of cat and mouse gaming it in the, in the streets, it still hasn't had a big enough impact on them to.

8:16 [SPEAKER_00]: reduce their reach globally with threats, you know, in Europe and elsewhere, as well as their ability to continue to strike vessels pretty much on a daily basis and in most cases, multiple times a day. [SPEAKER_00]: So I would kick it back to you guys and ask, you know, do you think that between now and December 11th that there's going to be an uptick or do you think the Trump administration is going to try to [SPEAKER_00]: somehow back out of it and not enter into a lame dot congress essentially with [SPEAKER_00]: This huge fight on their hands. [SPEAKER_00]: I tend to think that there will probably be more strikes, but you never know. [SPEAKER_00]: Be curious to get what you guys think.

8:57 [SPEAKER_00]: Will there be and or should there be? [SPEAKER_00]: I do want to preface that with these are IRGC claims, but we're primarily IRGC claims, but there are other institutions in Europe that are keeping track for insurance purposes that are confirming those reports. [SPEAKER_00]: All of this lands on a war secretary who's job is essentially now in question, you know, Trump continues to back Hegg Seth in public while impeachment talks bill talks billed. [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously with the blue wave of the House and the Senate, these impeachment talks are gaining steam and looking like they're probably more likely Trump says that he thinks he's [SPEAKER_00]: CBS reports that he's been asking advisers whether Hegg Seth should go or not, and that some made suggest blame could fall on Admiral Brad Cooper, or General Dan Cain Thomas Massey says he'll reintroduce impeachment articles when Congress returns November 9th, and Senator Tillis says Hegg Seth faces a quote reckoning.

10:11 [SPEAKER_00]: Pentagon's count, say as at 23 dead, Nate 65 wounded, no, you know, there is a bit of a problematic approach to this, and I'm not saying it's necessarily unwarranted for my perspective, going back to the signal chat debacle, you know, while I don't think, you know, I think it's pretty safe to assume or or even prove rather that that was not intentional. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that that was a leak on purpose, I think it was just a careless mistake. [SPEAKER_00]: But the reality of it is, is even going back to then, is that would be a reason for being fired? [SPEAKER_00]: Well, well, before all of this, I can tell you as an intelligence representative in a seal platoon multiple times.

10:58 [SPEAKER_00]: If I had done something like that, texting things to or including a reporter without a clearance in a group chat, texting different plans or orders, I for sure would have lost my job, I mean there'd be no two ways about it, and not just lost my job, I mean there would have been. [SPEAKER_00]: far greater consequences than just losing my job having said that that didn't happen so here we are kind of right in the middle of things and I'm not saying that it necessarily is a terrible idea to replace leaders when things aren't going well or what have you but in in this case you know if I'm being fair and as objective as I can be [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that he's done a terrible job in terms of the Iran attack plans and kind of coordination of efforts, our military [SPEAKER_00]: obviously headed by him in terms of orders has done a good job given the constraints.

12:00 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, I don't think you can put so much blame on Hegseth and or the military in this case. [SPEAKER_00]: They've done what's been asked of him and in that regard, I don't think he's done a bad job. [SPEAKER_00]: Again, that doesn't dismiss the signal thing or other missteps to be fair. [SPEAKER_00]: We all have missteps, but at that level, accountability is super, super important. [SPEAKER_00]: I do wonder if trying to impeach him is more of a roundabout way of trying to, you know, layer the onion, so to speak, in, you know, full-monty approach to try to end the war, however possible, and maybe that's a, [SPEAKER_00]: a distraction or escape code or just one more thing that proves problematic for the administration to continue doing it.

12:49 [SPEAKER_00]: These are all assumptions or questions rather of wondering if maybe that's the case, but it's hard to say, but again, I don't think that that leadership change from a incompetency. [SPEAKER_00]: In this particular case, is necessarily warranted. [SPEAKER_00]: There also hasn't been a release of the draft of what the impeachment states either, maybe. [SPEAKER_00]: It does go back to the signal chat, maybe there's, I'm sure there's a laundry list of things, but it is dicey sometimes when things are kind of in the middle of a campaign like this, and you talk about removing the leaders, [SPEAKER_00]: If it's warranted, absolutely, and that in and of itself can instill confidence in the military, but it can also backfire and do the opposite, whereas if nobody's at the helm that has been in charge of all of these different plans, then it can cause confusion and break a little bit of confidence.

13:49 [SPEAKER_00]: So we'll see what happens in November, 9th when that seems like this is going to start to pick up. [SPEAKER_00]: you know to me I would ask who do you think should answer for how this war has gone to me that the commander in chief is is ultimately the one responsible but I'd love to get your guys to take as a headset as a trump is it somebody else is a combination but let's talk about it how this hits America [SPEAKER_00]: Well, Washington kind of argues over who's to blame China is entering the chat and they're not waiting. [SPEAKER_00]: They're moving in on Taiwan in a pretty aggressive fashion. [SPEAKER_00]: There's a Taiwan report says more than 100 Chinese navy and Coast Guard vessels in the western Pacific, including a carrier group and 49 aircraft in a 24-hour stretch this week, encroached on to Taiwan.

14:44 [SPEAKER_00]: So I think both Russia and China are becoming and feeling more emboldened as they see [SPEAKER_00]: prolonged stalemate with Iran and our hands kind of being full, is that it opens the door for them to be more aggressive in their objectives and you're seeing this ramp up kind of over and over and it's getting to be pretty linear. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, I guess I would ask the viewers and an listeners, is that do you see that as kind of the cause for the recent uptick in aggression from [SPEAKER_00]: I suspect that it is, but there's a theory that you guys have as to why that's taking place now and kind of ramping up faster than normal.

15:34 [SPEAKER_00]: I would love to hear about it. [SPEAKER_00]: Do you think that the Navy can really cover two significant regions or oceans at once? [SPEAKER_00]: I think they can, however, there's an obvious level of importance put on the Middle East right now and far less on the China Sea and China's encroachment on Taiwan. [SPEAKER_00]: But if resumes do strike at the level that they were previously, it would be a pretty tough ask and I think dividing forces that way would not be in our best interest. [SPEAKER_00]: I understand the importance of Taiwan and that, you know, 90% or so of the semiconductors that really are our lifestyle and quality of life kind of hinges on, but it's also a pretty big uptick in the responsibility globally that our nation's forces in particular, the navy would have to be responsible for and I don't know that that would pan out super well, [SPEAKER_00]: uh... back to the middle east second choke point that are and just named the hoothies claim a missile strike on riaz airport and worn airlines off-soughty airspace uh... might as a matter well [SPEAKER_00]: Saudi Arabia's way around Hormuz is a pipeline in the Red Sea.

16:56 [SPEAKER_00]: If the Babelman Deb closes to that fallback is for sure at risk and gas prices will follow. [SPEAKER_00]: Bren is in the mid-90s, crude oils in the mid-90s after a steep drop this week. [SPEAKER_00]: I was up to one-16 last week. [SPEAKER_00]: I think a big part of why you saw the draw-down in oil prices was this secondary pipeline that Saudi Arabia has established it's in the Houthis obvious best interest to attack that and ultimately Iran because if the way around the Hormuz is compromised then the power and kind of chips go back in their hands, you know, that's the reality of it and it's [SPEAKER_00]: I think obvious and understandable why those are targets.

17:46 [SPEAKER_00]: Further highlights, you know, UK and France have recently gotten into an instant military forces to Saudi Arabia to help defend against the Houthi threat. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, we've had a minimal involvement, but some you may see a ramp up in that given [SPEAKER_00]: this recent attack and the fact that established pipeline has proved to be helpful in reducing the dependency on the on the horror moves straight for you know for all the oil running through the region. [SPEAKER_00]: All of it comes back to Washington where voters just changed to controls the money. [SPEAKER_00]: I talked about this a little bit earlier, but I want to highlight as kind of the last story is that December 11th is the first war funding test with the Democrats winning House and Senate Vice President Vance actually is quoted in saying the reason we lost is the war.

18:43 [SPEAKER_00]: While Trump said he'd do it again, you know, this [SPEAKER_00]: It's an interesting budding of heads between the Vice President and President. [SPEAKER_00]: It's hard to not maybe imagine that the Vice President is distancing himself a little bit with now the midterms over and the presidential election coming up in two years where Trump can't run again and it's pretty historically common for a Vice President of any outgoing administration to run for that seat or for President. [SPEAKER_00]: But I do suspect that he's probably felt that way all along and just publicly has not voiced that concern as to not undermine his boss.

19:28 [SPEAKER_00]: But I do think that it's interesting to see that split and also Trump saying that he would do it again. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think this from my perspective kind of highlights the disconnect at certain levels of both wealth and power for a long enough time. [SPEAKER_00]: where, you know, I think it's easy to say, you know, hey, it's paying at the pump right now, which, you know, the war and oil prices rising to what they've risen to in the last eight months, isn't just, it's expensive to fill up your car. [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, that trickles down into everything given that, [SPEAKER_00]: almost everything in this country is shipped via truck, you know, and diesel prices have skyrocketed in the last six, eight months.

20:13 [SPEAKER_00]: So I do think that the war trickling down into the economy and that bit of a disconnect from, you know, if you're not having to pay to fill up your tank and you're not even driving yourself around, you're not, you know, either not paying for your cost of goods in terms of living. [SPEAKER_00]: or, you know, irrespective of what the price is, you can afford it and it doesn't matter. [SPEAKER_00]: I do think that there's a bit of a reality disconnect there and, you know, assuming that, you know, the entire American public needs to just take one for the team and, and hey, this is a short term, you know, suffering that you just have to endure, you know, for, for the long game. [SPEAKER_00]: That's a much harder thing to, to sell to people who, [SPEAKER_00]: you know, we're trying to decide whether or not to buy groceries or pay their electric bill.

21:03 [SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think Americans have historically and even recently shown that they're willing to to do that, but it needs to be something that they believe in and I'm not convinced that most people believe in it. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, that's my take on it, but I'm curious to see and I'd love to get your guys to take on, you know, ramping up to December 11. [SPEAKER_00]: Do you think that Congress is going to use that as a way to to stop the war in Iran? [SPEAKER_00]: It also, I think, brings up the question, should Congress have a bigger role as they're supposed to, and, and, as is stated, you know, that the Congress should be part of the word discussion and kind of be the check-in balance against the executive branch's ability to unilaterally wage war.

21:52 [SPEAKER_00]: I do think it's important and make sense to, [SPEAKER_00]: react in defensive postures or even preemptive if it's short, very specific and clearly stated goals. [SPEAKER_00]: I do think red tape and having Congress to sign off on every single action the President takes could be problematic and reminds me of the bureaucracy that takes place in the military where you have to ask nine people to call and close their support. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that's the right answer. [SPEAKER_00]: eight months of sustained troop presence in six months of that is very, very intense combat stories and air strikes.

22:37 [SPEAKER_00]: I do think it gets to a point where Congress needs to be able to at least play a role in that decision-making process more than just deciding on whether or not there's money, but I wouldn't be surprised if you see that be the star of the fight of trying to [SPEAKER_00]: oil prices, whether or not that's going to have the intended impact would would remain to be seen, but be curious to see if you guys think that Congress is going to yank the road, the financial rug out from under the president in terms of the Iran funding. [SPEAKER_00]: Those are the headlines for today, as always, I appreciate you guys tuning in, God bless everybody, and we'll see you tomorrow.