Iran’s 48-Hour Ultimatum, a Blockade Strike and Qatar’s Peace Plan | Mike Drop Newsroom

0:00 [SPEAKER_00]: A U.S. war plane just fired on a ship trying to run the blockade on Iran, and Terran's answer is a promise to quote, Rain Down Hell. [SPEAKER_00]: Sentcom said a St. [SPEAKER_00]: Kits flaged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, ignored repeated warnings and attempted to violate the naval blockade. [SPEAKER_00]: Also according to Sentcom, U.S. forces ordered the crew to abandon targeted spaces. [SPEAKER_00]: Then a U.S. war plane fired precision munitions at the ship. [SPEAKER_00]: Radio Free Europe reported that St. Com says enforcement since July has redirected 147 commercial vessels and disabled five merchant ships. [SPEAKER_00]: Al Jazeera reported that Iran's foreign minister wrote, quote, are two day proposals stands and warned that otherwise Iran's warriors will rain down hell.

0:48 [SPEAKER_00]: Trump told CNN news strikes are, quote, highly unlikely. [SPEAKER_00]: to be necessary, and Al Jazeera reported he said three carriers in the region are fully locked and loaded. [SPEAKER_00]: Light is this matter. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, every boarding, every strike puts U.S. sailors and air crews at risk in the line of fire, and this next move really depends on the talks. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, this two-day ultimatum that Iran gave yesterday. [SPEAKER_00]: Essentially says that the demands there are seven point list of demands needs to be met agreed upon an action taken in the next 48 hours or they're going to escalate in. [SPEAKER_00]: Basically ramp up attacks on us without us doing anything to provoke other than not agreeing to it and implementing it so.

1:37 [SPEAKER_00]: this will be a curious 24 hours to see if they do in fact follow through Iran has notoriously been one to make threats and you know say things that are either hyperbole or over exaggerated any they're not follow through or follow through in a way that does not match what the threat was however with the midterms ending out or ending up the way that they did December 11 there's a big [SPEAKER_00]: to see whether or not any funding will basically be allocated to continue the fight against Iran and continue the blockade is a $350 billion asked by Higgs Earth.

2:18 [SPEAKER_00]: So really a busy couple of weeks coming up. [SPEAKER_00]: And 24 hours from now, we're going to know whether or not they follow through on this threat of escalated attacks yesterday's story was talking about Russia potentially giving them their S-400 [SPEAKER_00]: aircraft or surface-to-air missile set now, there's been a fair bit of debate since that story broke as to whether or not Russia even has the capability with the sustained combat operations against Ukraine. [SPEAKER_00]: They've used quite a few of them. [SPEAKER_00]: It's also not a particularly user-friendly system that can just be given and implemented in an effective manner quickly.

3:02 [SPEAKER_00]: already been teaching Iran how to use them. [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe they've already given them. [SPEAKER_00]: This is the first kind of public outing of that even being a potential. [SPEAKER_00]: that could be a significant game changer if we resume strikes and now there's a much more capable and much more long range capacity that are in possesses to be able to mitigate the threat that we bring to the table from an air strike campaign standpoint. [SPEAKER_00]: So next 24 hours are going to be significant. [SPEAKER_00]: Does the blockade tighten or loosen if that clock runs out? [SPEAKER_00]: We do have a third carrier group, the Roosevelt steaming this way or that way from the South China Sea.

3:48 [SPEAKER_00]: So it should be there in a matter of days, not uncommon or wouldn't be something that wouldn't make sense for them to wait until that third carrier group is at least within striking distance. [SPEAKER_00]: But should be a busy next day or two and we'll see what happens. [SPEAKER_00]: Talk to you today about task force, iron gate. [SPEAKER_00]: This kind of block-aid augmentation, which is a 20-man task force in Tampa, that is really designated and charged with bringing to bear a land component for disrupting all of the strikes and mining operations that have been taking place in the region for the last several months.

4:39 [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously tracking things on land is trickier than tracking things on sea. [SPEAKER_00]: I suspect that like I mentioned yesterday, there's I assume a contingent of [SPEAKER_00]: drone capabilities and air platform strike campaigns that are going to be put in place for both targeting and potentially executing this this mission set, but whether or not that has an impact or mitigates Iran's threat from what they're essentially talking about doing in the next 24 hours, whether or not we [SPEAKER_00]: You know, draw down that blockade or not remains to be seen, but we are escalating our mitigation protocol to be able to, you know, further hinder their ability to strike in the region.

5:40 [SPEAKER_00]: Just next door in Iraq, one drone just knocked out power to most of the Kurdish region, Al Jazeera reported that an explosive's laden drone hit the core more gas station facility Sunday night. [SPEAKER_00]: That's according to security sources. [SPEAKER_00]: The Kurdish region's electricity ministry, that's at 2,500 to 2,800 megawatts were knocked off the grid. [SPEAKER_00]: And more than 70% of the region is currently without power. [SPEAKER_00]: Al Jazeera reported that gas supply to power plants and earbeal, sullumania, Bayesian, champchamel, and dohawk was suspended. [SPEAKER_00]: Iraq's prime minister said there were no casualties in the initial assessment in order to a joint investigation.

6:22 [SPEAKER_00]: No group has claimed the attack, which I do think is significant. [SPEAKER_00]: Your bill has long hosted the U.S. and coalition troops. [SPEAKER_00]: They've been an ally in the region for decades. [SPEAKER_00]: The northern part of Iraq, this Kurdistan region has been a friend of ours, I would say, to a much higher degree than just about anywhere in the region when it comes to actually putting hands on and going against whether it's Iraqi forces, Iranian militant forces that are infiltrating [SPEAKER_00]: You know, they've kind of stood by our side and, you know, I've had multiple guests on the show operation Viking Hammer being one of them where, you know, there was a significant input from the Kurdish forces to reclaim or act specific to that region.

7:13 [SPEAKER_00]: So the fact that very targeted attack against power in that region is significant. [SPEAKER_00]: similarly significant that Iran or anyone else is actually claimed, you know, responsibility for this attack. [SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, they typically do when they have a success like that, it tends to be a prop again to piece that they like to celebrate. [SPEAKER_00]: So, the fact that nobody has claimed responsibility is curious to see what the group [SPEAKER_00]: Do you think that Iran sent the drone if not who do you suppose is responsible for it? [SPEAKER_00]: Qatar's peace plan at the White House, another update with further ramping up negotiations.

7:58 [SPEAKER_00]: All of this potentially could end at the White House today, or as early as today, Qatar is bringing the plan, Fox News reported in the society in the White House, that Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman, Al-Tani meets Trump in Washington on Monday. [SPEAKER_00]: The AP has reported that the Atari plan would lift the U.S. port blockade and release part of about $8 billion in frozen Iranian assets. [SPEAKER_00]: In exchange for inspectors' access to the bomb sites, Rubio said I wouldn't say worth the verge of a breakthrough, and called Iran's demands quote outrageous and ridiculous. [SPEAKER_00]: Reuters reported that Brent Crude was near $97 a barrel on Monday morning after Trump signal new strikes were unlikely.

8:45 [SPEAKER_00]: Why does this matter to Americans? [SPEAKER_00]: Well, a deal could ease prices at the pump, a collapse in negotiation. [SPEAKER_00]: by itself could send oil prices higher and I think more importantly could signal this next 24-hour timeline of ultimatum running out where resume strikes and an escalation of aggression on both sides could be significant in the next 24-48 hours, which I think almost unquestionably would both raise a lot of attention in the region and send oil prices skyrocketing. [SPEAKER_00]: Do you think that releasing frozen money should even be part of the equation? [SPEAKER_00]: I don't, so of course my opinion, loved to know what the group thinks on that.

9:30 [SPEAKER_00]: But I do tend to think that while I can't blame them for asking any relinquishment on our end monetarily, [SPEAKER_00]: Even if it's not giving them money, even just unfreezing their assets, I think one is a concession that is a bridge too far, most likely. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it's a realistic one that you're going to see us agree to. [SPEAKER_00]: I also think the allowance of inspectors is a bit of a cat and mouse game at this point they've had months [SPEAKER_00]: to either clean up, move, respond, rebuild, reallocate any of the nuclear material at any of the sites that we've bombed.

10:14 [SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, while I understand that certainly, again, can't blame them for adding that in as a concession that frankly, it really isn't in that especially given the size of a ran. [SPEAKER_00]: They've had a truckload of time to do whatever, or make [SPEAKER_00]: You know, allocations or reallocations of assets possible to make it look like there either isn't material there or even never was so [SPEAKER_00]: It seems like it's probably a lost cause I still, you know, do feel encouraged that there's negotiations taking place in Qatar is actually coming here to try to get both sides to sit down, but, you know, it doesn't look super promising from my, might take the curious to see what you think.

11:03 [SPEAKER_00]: Last but not least, Trump is to meet with Xi Jinping and Putin at APEC. [SPEAKER_00]: This is next week, you know, they're basically taking the Iran War to negotiate or at least talk with Regie and Putin. [SPEAKER_00]: Al Jazeera reported that Trump expects to speak with Xi Jinping and Putin at next week's APEC summit and wants to discuss a do-deenuclearization and the Iran war. [SPEAKER_00]: Radio-free Europe reported the APEC summit is being held in China. [SPEAKER_00]: G7 foreign ministers meet in Paris today in tomorrow with Iran and Ukraine on the agenda according to AP reporting. [SPEAKER_00]: Fox News reported that a former NATO Commander warns Trump's proposed Russia deal could give Putin more influence over Europe, why as matters to Americans will Beijing and Moscow have a fair bit of leverage over Tehran.

11:55 [SPEAKER_00]: How they use it is for sure going to affect US troops currently and potentially how long they stay in the region. [SPEAKER_00]: I think where it gets complicated is for both of those powers, is that there's unquestionably a benefit to our hands being tied and being, you know, three carrier strike groups deeply embroiled in combat of operations or on the on the verge of combat operations in the region that allows them more flexibility, Russia and Ukraine and China and Taiwan. [SPEAKER_00]: The downside for both of them is because they're so closely allied with Iran, it also hurts them having us do what we're doing specific to the energy sector oil prices.

12:40 [SPEAKER_00]: China, especially historically, has gotten a significant portion of their oil and energy sector from Iran, both legally and illegally. [SPEAKER_00]: So it is kind of a catch-22, I think, for both of them, they do have a vested interest. [SPEAKER_00]: And I can certainly understand why they're both coming to the table to try to find some negotiation that I have no doubt. [SPEAKER_00]: We'll try to benefit them to the best of their ability and they'll probably try to [SPEAKER_00]: get their cake and eat it too, so to speak. [SPEAKER_00]: But be curious to see what what comes out of that. [SPEAKER_00]: It is a big update and we'll see, see, kind of where that goes. [SPEAKER_00]: I said last but not least, there is one more story that a little bit of an update, Bloomberg reported that the White House is asking for a $1.5 trillion defense request.

13:30 [SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to say that again, 1.5 trillion dollar defense budget request that is a 44% increase over last year. [SPEAKER_00]: It is likely to be reduced or cut back down to the historic one trillion that it has been. [SPEAKER_00]: But according to Bloomberg current defense funding is that stop gap, which we've talked about on December 11th. [SPEAKER_00]: So either way, sometime between now and December 11th, a significant amount of negotiations are going to both have to take place and be figured out in the halls of Congress. [SPEAKER_00]: They're just coming back this week after about a month off. [SPEAKER_00]: And they do have their work cut out for them because, you know, there is a lot at stake here for both sides or I mean really for for all sides, you know, the Republicans that are about to lose power in Congress are trying to get as much money allocated to further the goals and objective set by the administration, the incoming Democrats for sure don't want that to continue and want to hamstring them to the best of their ability.

14:39 [SPEAKER_00]: The downside is our U.S. service members are kind of sitting in the middle, unfortunately being used as chess pieces on a political chessboard, where each side is trying to kind of vie for power and they get stuck in the middle, I think, kind of as usual. [SPEAKER_00]: And it's one of the more frustrating things, I think, as a veteran coming up on veterans [SPEAKER_00]: They're in this position, you can't take that back, whether or not Democrats undercut and yank the rug out funding-wise, it could potentially put them in a precarious situation being unfunded and potentially not even paid depending on whether or not a shutdown happens.

15:25 [SPEAKER_00]: So, be curious to see what Congress gets done this week as it relates to this budget, and this one-and-a-half trillion dollar defense request. [SPEAKER_00]: Certainly, keep you posted on any updates that comes to fruition there. [SPEAKER_00]: As always, appreciate you guys watching those real updates. [SPEAKER_00]: God bless everybody and we'll see you tomorrow.